Forecast and Analysis of U.S. E-Cigarette Policy Trends in 2025

As the largest e-cigarette market in the world, the policy direction in the United States significantly impacts the adjustments and development of Chinese e-cigarette companies. This article provides a forecast of U.S. e-cigarette policy trends for 2025 based on a review of online information and materials, intended for industry practitioners’ reference. The analysis is as follows:
**1. Continued Tightening of Federal Regulatory Framework and Strengthened Enforcement**
**Deepening of PMTA Approval and Flavor Restrictions**
1.The Premarket Tobacco Application (PMTA) process by the FDA will remain the core regulatory tool. As of June 2024, all products approved through PMTA are tobacco or menthol flavors, while flavored products such as fruit and candy remain strictly prohibited. It is expected that the FDA will maintain this restriction in 2025 but may expand the authorization scope for menthol flavors (e.g., successful cases like NJOY).
2.Age verification technology may become a necessary condition for PMTA approval. The FDA has explicitly required compliant products (e.g., Vuse, NJOY) to verify user age through Bluetooth connections to curb youth usage.
**Upgraded Enforcement Efforts**
1.The joint task force established by the FDA, the Department of Justice, and Customs will continue to crack down on illegal e-cigarette imports and sales, particularly targeting Chinese supply chain companies under a “red list” system (e.g., 13 additional Chinese companies added in 2024).
2.The enforcement scope will expand from retailers to wholesalers and distributors, focusing on unauthorized flavored products and disposable e-cigarettes.
**Recognition of Harm Reduction and Adjustment of Regulatory Thinking**
1.The FDA may further acknowledge the harm reduction value of e-cigarettes in scientific reviews (e.g., health benefits for adult smokers) but will need to balance this with youth protection goals.
2.Disposable e-cigarettes may become a regulatory focus due to their popularity among youth and the difficulty in tracing their sources.
**2. Continued Tightening of Federal Regulatory Framework and Strengthened Enforcement**
**Unification of Age Restrictions and Sales Controls**
1.The federal minimum purchase age has been raised to 21 (Tobacco 21 Act), but states may further strengthen enforcement; for example, Alaska and Florida have pushed for local legislation.
2.Online sales restrictions and age verification requirements will become stricter, with some states potentially following New York’s lead in banning online sales.
**Controversy and Adjustment of Flavor Bans**
1.Although the federal level only allows tobacco and menthol flavors, states like California and Massachusetts have implemented stricter local bans. More states may join the flavor restriction movement in 2025, but there is a risk of a “rebound effect” (e.g., youth turning to traditional cigarettes).
**Complexity of Tax Policies and Trend of High Tax Rates**
1.Currently, 33 states impose taxes on e-cigarettes, with significant rate differences (e.g., Minnesota’s 95% wholesale tax, California’s 52.92% wholesale tax + 12.5% retail tax).
2.By 2025, states may gradually unify tax rate models, leaning towards “taxing based on nicotine content or e-liquid volume,” with average tax rates likely to continue rising (e.g., Michigan’s 18% nicotine tax).
**3. Continued Tightening of Federal Regulatory Framework and Strengthened Enforcement**
**Youth and Public Health Controversies**
1.The CDC and FDA will continue to emphasize the health risks of e-cigarettes for youth (e.g., EVALI lung injury cases), pushing for stricter advertising restrictions and public smoking bans.
2.However, some studies support the value of e-cigarettes as a smoking cessation tool, which may create pressure for policy loosening.
**Uncertainty of New Government Policies**
1.Under a Trump administration, there may be a relaxation of regulations on the traditional tobacco industry and a weakening of federal enforcement, while still maintaining a crackdown on illegal imports.
**4. Continued Tightening of Federal Regulatory Framework and Strengthened Enforcement**
**Compliance and Technological Innovation**
1.Disposable e-cigarettes may see a decline in market share due to tightening regulations, while refillable devices may benefit from higher traceability.
2.Tax-free states (e.g., Georgia) may become distribution hubs, but rapid changes in state-level policies should be monitored.
**Industry Lobbying and Policy Negotiation**
1.The American E-Cigarette Association may increase lobbying efforts to promote federal recognition of harm reduction and rationalization of tax policies.
2.Attention should be paid to international experiences (e.g., the UK supporting e-cigarettes as a smoking cessation tool) and their potential influence on the FDA’s stance.
**5. Continued Tightening of Federal Regulatory Framework and Strengthened Enforcement**
1.**Core Risks:** Exceeding expected FDA enforcement intensity, increasing fragmentation of state-level policies, and international trade frictions (e.g., scrutiny of the China-U.S. e-cigarette supply chain).
2.**Potential Opportunities:** Increased market share for compliant products (e.g., Vuse, NJOY) and innovations in harm reduction technologies (e.g., low-temperature atomization, nicotine-free products).
3.**Action Recommendations:** Closely monitor the FDA’s quarterly approval lists, state legislative dynamics, and policy adjustments, prioritizing the layout of high-compliance product lines.